In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. Aim of this article is to frame a conjectural framework which makes full allowance for the dynamics and complexity of the various systems involved with the development of 3G mobile TV services and to generating quantitative results. This study is based on a scenario evaluation and analysis through repeated cross impact handling, and allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic forces driving the scenarios are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple features. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. We assume that a single event requiring forecasting can be impacted upon by other events. The experience of experts is gathered in the form of subjective probabilities, to determine the likelihood of the events and the impacts between pairs of events. Simulation and mathematical programming techniques are then used to find the scenario with the highest possible probability consistent with the estimates. Applying the SEARCH method we run our scenario project through the following four phases: 1.Detection of key factors; 2. Foresight of alternative projections; 3.Calculation and formulation of scenarios; 4. Analysis, mapping and interpretation of scenarios. Findings allow to identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.
Roadmapping 3G Mobile TV: Scenario Planning Through Repeated Cross Impact Handling
PAGANI, MARGHERITA
2008
Abstract
In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. Aim of this article is to frame a conjectural framework which makes full allowance for the dynamics and complexity of the various systems involved with the development of 3G mobile TV services and to generating quantitative results. This study is based on a scenario evaluation and analysis through repeated cross impact handling, and allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic forces driving the scenarios are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple features. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. We assume that a single event requiring forecasting can be impacted upon by other events. The experience of experts is gathered in the form of subjective probabilities, to determine the likelihood of the events and the impacts between pairs of events. Simulation and mathematical programming techniques are then used to find the scenario with the highest possible probability consistent with the estimates. Applying the SEARCH method we run our scenario project through the following four phases: 1.Detection of key factors; 2. Foresight of alternative projections; 3.Calculation and formulation of scenarios; 4. Analysis, mapping and interpretation of scenarios. Findings allow to identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.
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