Income shocks and mortality of low-wage workers: Evidence from wage allowances in Brazil

We examine the short-term impact of income shocks on mortality in Brazil using administrative data and the quasi-random timing of disbursements from a federal wage allowance program for low-income workers. Exploiting variation in payment timing by birth month and a sharp eligibility cutoff, we find that mortality increases by 9.5% during the week of payment, particularly for deaths related to economic activity such as cardiovascular conditions and external causes. Effects are strongest in areas with low financial development and poor healthcare access, suggesting that limited consumption smoothing and delayed medical care amplify mortality risks. Our findings highlight how institutional constraints in developing countries shape the health consequences of predictable income transfers, with implications for the design and timing of social protection programs.