Fertility rates show dynamically–varying shapes when modeled as a function of the age at delivery. We incorporate this behavior under a novel Bayesian approach for dynamic modeling of proportionate age–specific fertility rates via skewed processes. The model assumes a skew–normal distribution for the age at the moment of childbirth, while allowing the location and the skewness parameters to evolve in time via Gaussian processes priors. Posterior inference is performed via Monte Carlo methods, leveraging results on unified skew–normal distributions. The proposed approach is illustrated on Italian age–specific fertility rates from 1991 to 2014, providing forecasts until 2030.

Projecting proportionate age–specific fertility rates via Bayesian skewed processes

Durante, Daniele;Scarpa, Bruno
2020

Abstract

Fertility rates show dynamically–varying shapes when modeled as a function of the age at delivery. We incorporate this behavior under a novel Bayesian approach for dynamic modeling of proportionate age–specific fertility rates via skewed processes. The model assumes a skew–normal distribution for the age at the moment of childbirth, while allowing the location and the skewness parameters to evolve in time via Gaussian processes priors. Posterior inference is performed via Monte Carlo methods, leveraging results on unified skew–normal distributions. The proposed approach is illustrated on Italian age–specific fertility rates from 1991 to 2014, providing forecasts until 2030.
2020
9783030424718
9783030424725
Mazzuco, Stefano; Keilman, Nico
Developments in demographic forecasting
Aliverti, Emanuele; Durante, Daniele; Scarpa, Bruno
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
DEMF_Durante2020.pdf

accesso aperto

Descrizione: chapter
Tipologia: Pdf editoriale (Publisher's layout)
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 1.66 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.66 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11565/4056396
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 0
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact