The quantification of the psychiatric revolution: a quasi-natural experiment of the suicide impact of the Basaglia law

Background: The Italian 180/1978 reform abolishing asylums is one of the most contested mental health programs ever implemented. It aimed to shift care of mental illness into the community improving outcomes and reducing expenditure. It was a model for successive deinstitutionalization initiatives across Europe and North America. However, there were longstanding concerns that, without expansion of community care, it may have deprived patients with mental illness access to support, placing them at increased risk of suicide. Methods: Regression discontinuity models were used to quantify the association between the number of suicides and the introduction of the Basaglia Law, disaggregated by age-group and gender, covering 20 Italian regions during the period 1975–84. Models were adjusted for potential socio-demographic confounding factors, region-specific fixed effects and pre-existing time-trends. Results: Italian regions implemented the Basaglia Law to varying degrees over time. We observed that, after adjusting for pre-existing time trends, the implementation was associated with a consistent increase in the number of suicides for all the age-groups [incidence rate ratio, age 15–44: 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18–1.41; age 45–74: 1.45, 95% CI 1.37–1.54] and for both genders (males: 1.47, 95% CI 1.41–1.53; females: 1.36, 95% CI 1.25–1.47). Hospital closure appeared to be an important mediating mechanism. Conclusions: The Basaglia Law was associated with a significant increase in the number of suicides, with evidence of an association with closures of facilities, leaving those with mental illness with nowhere to go, as the envisioned community care structures failed to be developed as originally planned.