A Value-Choice model to forecast market consequences of 3G mobile service design decisions

This paper proposes a conceptual framework for a forecasting system which attempts to predict the market consequences of 3G mobile service design decisions. The market forecasting system described is the output of a value/choice model based on factors that affect adoption of 3G mobile multimedia services. The research question is: given full awareness and equal availability (marketing strength, etc.) of services with given characteristics, what fraction of a representative subpopulation would prefer each service? This paper empirically describes the attributes and levels of the value model, presents the choice model that converts the values assigned to each alternative service into a set of choice probabilities, describes the forecasting model in that system, and discusses the validation of the model. For practitioners, findings can serve as the basis for sophisticated understanding of mobile adoption related decisions.