Famine and disease

The infrequency of severe mortality crises and, more generally, the low prevalence of famine and disease are characteristics of modern industrial and post-industrial societies. Understanding mortality crises is an important part of understanding some fundamental aspects of preindustrial economies. Understanding the processes leading to their decline and the associated improvements in living standards and life expectancy—what Robert Fogel (2004) called the ‘escape from hunger and premature death’—is a precondition for knowing what is needed to prevent the re-emergence of widespread famine and lethal infectious disease. So this is a field in which the contribution of economic historians is vital and, given that the stakes are so high, one in which economists would do well to carefully consider the past, before making assumptions about the future.