A "great divergence" in fertility?

This chapter discusses theory and evidence concerning a “great divergence” in fertility among advanced societies in East Asia, Europe, and North America. As the demographic transition came to an end, some societies have stabilized at fertility levels at or close to replacement. Fertility in other societies, notably in Southern, Central and Eastern Europe and East Asia, has stabilized at levels closer to one child per couple than to two. Three characteristics of very low fertility societies are illustrated and discussed 1) a weaker position of young people; 2) a lower level of development or 3) lower levels of gender equality. Empirical analyses use macro-level data and quantitative evidence on cultural change using Google Ngram. Whether fertility differences in advanced societies become persistent, or convergence is to be expected will depend on very low fertility societies shifting to an environment with better well-being for young people and adults in reproductive ages, women in particular.