Demographic trends in Europe do not support empirically the secular stagnation hypothesis. Our evidence shows that the age structure of population generates less long-term growth but positive real rates. Policies for growth become very important. We assess the relevance of the demographic structure for the choice between macro adjustements and structural reforms. We show that middle aged and elderly individuals have a more negative view of reforms, competitiveness and globalization than young. Our results suggest that older countries -- in terms of share of elderly people -- should lean more towards macroeconomic adjustments, whereas younger nations will be more supportive of structural reforms.
Demographics and the secular stagnation hypothesis in Europe
FAVERO, CARLO AMBROGIO;GALASSO, VINCENZO
2016
Abstract
Demographic trends in Europe do not support empirically the secular stagnation hypothesis. Our evidence shows that the age structure of population generates less long-term growth but positive real rates. Policies for growth become very important. We assess the relevance of the demographic structure for the choice between macro adjustements and structural reforms. We show that middle aged and elderly individuals have a more negative view of reforms, competitiveness and globalization than young. Our results suggest that older countries -- in terms of share of elderly people -- should lean more towards macroeconomic adjustments, whereas younger nations will be more supportive of structural reforms.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|
6_Francesco-Caselli-et-al._Chapter5.V1.17-March-2016.pdf
non disponibili
Descrizione: Articolo Principale
Tipologia:
Documento in Pre-print (Pre-print document)
Licenza:
NON PUBBLICO - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione
1.02 MB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
1.02 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri |
I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.