Using micro data from Duke University Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well actual are explained by CFOs’ expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such as Tobin’s Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past and other data, pointing to extrapolative structure of expectations.
Expectations and investment
GENNAIOLI, NICOLA;
2016
Abstract
Using micro data from Duke University Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well actual are explained by CFOs’ expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such as Tobin’s Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past and other data, pointing to extrapolative structure of expectations.
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