Soverign Rating Events and bank Share Prices in the Italian Market

The paper examines the spillover effect of Eurozone sovereign rating changes announced by Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch on domestic bank share prices in the period 2002–2012. This spillover effect appears strongly negative in the case of downgrades, but insignificant for upgrades. Bank losses following sovereign downgrades are greater during the financial crisis of 2008 and in the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain). Surprisingly, announcement of sovereign negative credit watches results in increased bank stock returns. Bank share price losses following sovereign downgrades increase as bank leverage, efficiency, and equity performance increase, and they decrease as bank systematic risk and payout ratio increase. On the contrary, bank share prices increase following sovereign negative credit watches, as leverage and bank size decrease and as bank systematic risk increases.