In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth. Our leading indicators are taken from the variables in the ECB Euro-area-wide model database, plus a set of similar variables for the US. We compare the forecasting performance of each indicator ex-post with that of purely autoregressive models. We also analyze three different approaches to combining the information from several indicators.
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Titolo: | Leading indicators for Euro area inflation and GDP growth |
Data di pubblicazione: | 2005 |
Autori: | |
Autori: | Marcellino, Massimiliano; Banerjee, A.; Masten, I. |
Rivista: | OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS |
Abstract: | In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth. Our leading indicators are taken from the variables in the ECB Euro-area-wide model database, plus a set of similar variables for the US. We compare the forecasting performance of each indicator ex-post with that of purely autoregressive models. We also analyze three different approaches to combining the information from several indicators. |
Appare nelle tipologie: | 01 - Article in academic journal / Articolo su rivista Scientifica |
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