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EnglishWe provide an epistemic analysis of forward induction in games with complete and incomplete information. We suggest that forward induction may be usefully interpreted as a set of assumptions governing the players' belief revision processes, and define a notion of strong belief to formalize these assumptions. Building on the notion of strong belief, we provide an epistemic characterization of extensive-form rationalizability and the intuitive criterion, as well as sufficient epistemic conditions for the backward induction outcome. We also investigate the robustness of rationalizability to slight payoff uncertainity.
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| Titolo: | Strong belief and forward induction reasoning | |
| Data di pubblicazione: | 2002 | |
| Autori: | ||
| Autori: | Battigalli, Pierpaolo; Siniscalchi, M. | |
| Rivista: | JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY | |
| Abstract: | We provide an epistemic analysis of forward induction in games with complete and incomplete information. We suggest that forward induction may be usefully interpreted as a set of assumptions governing the players' belief revision processes, and define a notion of strong belief to formalize these assumptions. Building on the notion of strong belief, we provide an epistemic characterization of extensive-form rationalizability and the intuitive criterion, as well as sufficient epistemic conditions for the backward induction outcome. We also investigate the robustness of rationalizability to slight payoff uncertainity. | |
| Appare nelle tipologie: | 01 - Article in academic journal / Articolo su rivista scientifica |
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