To move or stay? Migration aspirations amid conflict and climate change

Many people worldwide live in areas affected by armed conflict, and many of these conflict affected regions are also highly vulnerable to climatic shocks. When these stressors coincide, they may compound insecurity and intensify competition over scarce resources. Yet, little is known about how simultaneous exposure to climate extremes and violent conflict is associated with migration. To address this gap, we merge Gallup World Poll interviews from 144 countries over the period 2009 to 2022 with high-resolution measures of conflict and drought events. We analyze this dataset using a linear-probability model with a rich set of fixed effects and estimate the strength of association between joint exposure to conflict and drought events and migration aspirations, defined as non-concrete preferences to move abroad. We find that conflict exposure is associated with higher migration aspirations, while drought exposure alone shows no significant association. However, when individuals experience both shocks simultaneously, their predicted probability of expressing migration aspirations roughly doubles, rising from an average of 23 percent to 45 percent. These compound associations are larger in poorer and less democratic countries, and among women, youth, and the less educated. Our findings highlight how conflict and climate risks can interact to strengthen migration aspirations, and they provide evidence for an integrated perspective in policy and research that considers both risks jointly.