Structural VAR models (SVAR) produce results that can vary dramatically with the choice of variables, because information is deficient.We argue that if the variables of interest belong to a High-Dimensional FactorModel and are replaced in the SVAR by their common components, the information issue finds a solution, provided that the number of common components is larger than the number of structural shocks, so that the SVAR is dynamically singular. This is the Common Components Structural VAR (CC-SVAR). Our main contribution is that we prove consistency of our CC-SVAR estimates, which is far from trivial as our estimated SVAR tends to dynamic singularity. We apply our procedure to monetary policy shocks, finding that, with the CC-SVAR, results are robust to the choice of variables and well-known puzzles disappear.
Common components structural VARs
Forni, Mario;Sala, Luca
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Abstract
Structural VAR models (SVAR) produce results that can vary dramatically with the choice of variables, because information is deficient.We argue that if the variables of interest belong to a High-Dimensional FactorModel and are replaced in the SVAR by their common components, the information issue finds a solution, provided that the number of common components is larger than the number of structural shocks, so that the SVAR is dynamically singular. This is the Common Components Structural VAR (CC-SVAR). Our main contribution is that we prove consistency of our CC-SVAR estimates, which is far from trivial as our estimated SVAR tends to dynamic singularity. We apply our procedure to monetary policy shocks, finding that, with the CC-SVAR, results are robust to the choice of variables and well-known puzzles disappear.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Common Components Structural VARs.pdf
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