The long-term effects of hospitalization on health care expenditures: an empirical analysis for the young-old population in Lombardy

As the burden of acute care on government budgets is mounting in many countries, documenting the evolution of health costs following patients’ hospital admission is essential for assessing overall hospital-related costs. In this paper, we investigate the short- and long-term effects of hospitalization on different types of health care expenditures. We specify and estimate a dynamic DID model using register data of the entire population of individuals aged 50–70 residing in Milan, Italy, over the period 2008–2017. We find evidence of a large and persistent effect of hospitalization on total health care expenditures, with future medical expenses mostly accounted for by inpatient care. Considering all health treatments, the overall effect is sizable and is about twice the cost of a single hospital admission. We show that chronically ill and disabled individuals require greater post-discharge medical assistance, especially for inpatient care, and that cardiovascular and oncological diseases together account for more than half of expenditures on future hospitalizations. Alternative out-of-hospital management practices are discussed as a post-admission cost-containment measure.