We propose a novel panel Bayesian Markov regime-switching Poisson regression model with time-varying transition probabilities to test existing theories on the driving forces of wave-like patterns in same-industry mergers and acquisitions. We show that the dynamics and persistence of merger waves change substantially in the cross-section of deal flow. This suggests that any inference on existing economically justified competing explanations of merger waves at the aggregate market level could be misleading, as the observed cross-industry heterogeneity in waves is shown to be the consequence of different responses to common or distinct drivers of merger activity.

An anatomy of industry merger waves

Bianchi, Daniele
;
Chiarella, Carlo
2019

Abstract

We propose a novel panel Bayesian Markov regime-switching Poisson regression model with time-varying transition probabilities to test existing theories on the driving forces of wave-like patterns in same-industry mergers and acquisitions. We show that the dynamics and persistence of merger waves change substantially in the cross-section of deal flow. This suggests that any inference on existing economically justified competing explanations of merger waves at the aggregate market level could be misleading, as the observed cross-industry heterogeneity in waves is shown to be the consequence of different responses to common or distinct drivers of merger activity.
2019
2018
Bianchi, Daniele; Chiarella, Carlo
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11565/4062497
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 2
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 2
social impact