Three Essays on Population and Historical Legacies: Fertility, Income Inequality and Natural Resources

This dissertation provides three essays on population dynamics from the perspective of historical legacies. The objective is to study how some current population dynamics can be influenced by past events, some of them from a very long-term perspective. The dominant theories and empirical work on population dynamics usually consider current or proximate determinants generally observed from the 20th century onwards. However, there are certain deeper determinants, rooted in history, that could have a powerful long-term influence. The first essay studies the global convergence of fertility. The fertility transition idea is traditionally linked to the global convergence of fertility towards a single equilibrium. In this essay I use a recently developed methodological approach that allows for multiple equilibrium analysis and club identification. It is used data on 190 countries and territories, over a period from 1960 to 2019. The findings in this essay do not support global fertility convergence. Instead, a number of ‘convergence clubs’ emerges from the data. These findings are discussed in the light of various demographic theories, proposing that fertility trends in contemporary societies cannot be understood without taking into account the interplay between continuities and discontinuities rooted of historical legacies. The second essay studies the link between population, extractive institutions, and income inequality for a particular historical period, from which long-term legacies could have emerged. Inequality in Latin America has been large, widespread and persistent. For some scholars, its origin dates back to the colonial period, when Europeans established extractive institutions that have lasted until the present. However, the analysis provided in this essay suggests that income inequality was already very high in the days of the Aztec Empire, so its roots lie in pre-Hispanic institutions. In 2021, it will be five hundred years since Tenochtitlan fell by the Spanish troops in alliance with several peoples who rose up against the Aztec Empire. However, little is known about the conditions of inequality and extraction prior to the arrival of Europeans. Indeed, such conditions might explain the imperial fall. It is analyzed income inequality in the 38 provinces of the Aztec Empire, showing how highly extractive conditions explain the ease with which the Spaniards promoted alliances with certain indigenous peoples to defeat the Aztecs. The same previous extractive conditions may have made it easier for Europeans to adapt the Aztec institutions for their own benefit during the early colonial period. It is concluded that colonialism in Latin America did not create economic inequality, it only exacerbated it. The last essay explores the link between current population dynamics and the environment given by the presence of natural resources from a very long-term perspective. The influential literature on the “curse of natural resources” highlights that resource-rich countries, under certain circumstances, have poorer economic and political outcomes than other countries. The third essay proposes that the presence of non-renewable natural resources also has important implications and long-term effects for fertility and other social dynamics related to family change. In a country-level analysis, this work first documents how the presence of natural resources is highly associated with higher fertility rates across the world. Second, the long-term effects and persistence of this “social curse” are highlighted, by providing evidence at the subnational level that the presence of historic coal mines, dating back to the Industrial Revolution in Europe, can be influencing on current fertility behaviors and other outcomes that are determinants of social change.