Tolerant or segregated? Immigration and electoral outcomes in urban areas

Despite recent research evidence that an increased share of immigrants in an area causes an increase in anti‐immigrant‐party votes, the electoral impact of exposure to immigration appears virtually non‐existent—or even contrary—in urban areas. This study thus reassesses the latter using disaggregated data for Milan, Italy's second‐largest city. The spatial scale of the analysis addresses the possible bias from aggregating neighbourhoods that are experiencing different immigration inflows. Using a sharp measure of anti‐immigration vote and a new instrumental variable to address the possible endogeneity of immigrant share, I find that exposure to immigration has a positive effect on anti‐immigration‐party votes even in urban contexts. These results are of possible major interest to moderate political forces and European institutions and could usefully guide policy‐makers in designing immigrant location policies.