Recent research has investigated the ability of option-implied densities to produce unbiased forecasts of the actual price densities of some financial assets. In this paper, for the first time, we assess the incremental predictive power of option-implied density forecasts to that of standard GARCH-based density forecasts.
Forecasting Accuracy of Implied and GARCH-based Probability Density Functions
BEDENDO, MASCIA;
2005
Abstract
Recent research has investigated the ability of option-implied densities to produce unbiased forecasts of the actual price densities of some financial assets. In this paper, for the first time, we assess the incremental predictive power of option-implied density forecasts to that of standard GARCH-based density forecasts.
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