Emotions and political unrest

How does political unrest ináuence public policy, and which groups exert more influence through this channel? This is the question addressed in this paper. Political unrest is motivated by emotions. Individuals engage in protests if they are aggrieved and feel that they have been treated unfairly. This reaction is predictable because individuals have a consistent view of what is fair. This framework yields novel insights about the sources of political ináuence of di§erent groups in society. Groups that are more ideological and homogeneous are more ináuential. Even if the government is benevolent and all groups are identical in their propensity to riot, equilibrium policy can be distorted. Individuals form their view of what is fair taking into account the current state of the world. If the government is more constrained, individuals accept a lower level of welfare. This resignation e§ect in turn induces a benevolent government to delay unpleasant policy choices because this mitigates social unrest. The evidence is consistent with these implications.