Construction of variance-based metamodels for probabilistic seismic analysis and fragility assessment

Finite element models used in industrial studies for seismic structural reliability analysis are in general very complex and computationally intensive. This is due to the important number of degrees of freedom as well as to advanced damage models and failure modes that have to be simulated. In consequence, reliability studies are feasible only by means of simpler surrogate models able to represent essential physics. Then, the choice of an accurate surrogate or metamodel is crucial for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis. The construction of a pertinent metamodel is however a not simple task when random uncertainties, not explained by the model parameters, have to be accounted for.