This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable with a large number of high-frequency indicators should account for at least two data irregularities: 1) unbalanced data with missing observations at the end of the sample due to publication delays, and 2) different sampling frequencies of the data. Two model classes suited in this context are factor models based on large datasets and mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with few predictors. The speci fication of these models requires several choices related to, amongst other things, the factor estimation method and the number of factors, lag length and indicator selection. Thus, there are many sources of misspeci cation when selecting a particular model, and an alternative would be pooling over a large set of different model specifi cations. We evaluate the relative performance of pooling and model selection for nowcasting quarterly GDP for six large industrialized countries. We find that the nowcast performance of single models varies considerably over time, in line with the forecasting literature. Model selection based on sequential application of information criteria can outperform benchmarks. However, the results highly depend on the selection method chosen. In contrast, pooling of nowcast models provides an overall very stable nowcast performance over time.
Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting GDP with many predictors: Empirical evidence for six industrialized countries
MARCELLINO, MASSIMILIANO;
2013
Abstract
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable with a large number of high-frequency indicators should account for at least two data irregularities: 1) unbalanced data with missing observations at the end of the sample due to publication delays, and 2) different sampling frequencies of the data. Two model classes suited in this context are factor models based on large datasets and mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with few predictors. The speci fication of these models requires several choices related to, amongst other things, the factor estimation method and the number of factors, lag length and indicator selection. Thus, there are many sources of misspeci cation when selecting a particular model, and an alternative would be pooling over a large set of different model specifi cations. We evaluate the relative performance of pooling and model selection for nowcasting quarterly GDP for six large industrialized countries. We find that the nowcast performance of single models varies considerably over time, in line with the forecasting literature. Model selection based on sequential application of information criteria can outperform benchmarks. However, the results highly depend on the selection method chosen. In contrast, pooling of nowcast models provides an overall very stable nowcast performance over time.
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