This paper systematically investigates the sources of differential out-of-sample predictive accuracy of heuristic frameworks based on internet search frequencies and a large set of econometric models. The volume of internet searches helps gauge the degree of investors’ time-varying interest in specific assets. We use a wide range of state-of-the-art models, both of linear and nonlinear type (regime-switching predictive regressions, threshold autoregressive, smooth transition autoregressive), extended to capture conditional heteroskedasticity through GARCH models. The predictor variables investigated are those typical of the literature featuring a range of macroeconomic and market leading indicators. Our out-of-sample forecasting exercises are conducted with reference to US, UK, French and German data, both stocks and bonds, and for 1- and 12-months-ahead horizons. We employ several forecast performance metrics and predictive accuracy tests. Internet-search-based models are found to perform better than the average of all of the alternative models. For several country-assethorizon combinations, particularly forUKbond returns, our heuristic models compare favourably with sophisticated econometric methods.The heuristic models are also shown to perform well in forecasting realized volatility.The baseline results are supported by several extensions and robustness checks, such as using alternative search keywords, controlling for Fama–French and Cochrane–Piazzesi factors, and implementing heuristic-based trading strategies.

How good can heuristic-based forecasts be? A comparative performance of econometric and heuristic models for UK and US asset returns

Guidolin, Massimo;Pedio, Manuela
2018

Abstract

This paper systematically investigates the sources of differential out-of-sample predictive accuracy of heuristic frameworks based on internet search frequencies and a large set of econometric models. The volume of internet searches helps gauge the degree of investors’ time-varying interest in specific assets. We use a wide range of state-of-the-art models, both of linear and nonlinear type (regime-switching predictive regressions, threshold autoregressive, smooth transition autoregressive), extended to capture conditional heteroskedasticity through GARCH models. The predictor variables investigated are those typical of the literature featuring a range of macroeconomic and market leading indicators. Our out-of-sample forecasting exercises are conducted with reference to US, UK, French and German data, both stocks and bonds, and for 1- and 12-months-ahead horizons. We employ several forecast performance metrics and predictive accuracy tests. Internet-search-based models are found to perform better than the average of all of the alternative models. For several country-assethorizon combinations, particularly forUKbond returns, our heuristic models compare favourably with sophisticated econometric methods.The heuristic models are also shown to perform well in forecasting realized volatility.The baseline results are supported by several extensions and robustness checks, such as using alternative search keywords, controlling for Fama–French and Cochrane–Piazzesi factors, and implementing heuristic-based trading strategies.
2018
2017
Guidolin, Massimo; Orlov, Alexei G.; Pedio, Manuela
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Guidolin Orlov and Pedio QF 2017.pdf

non disponibili

Tipologia: Pdf editoriale (Publisher's layout)
Licenza: NON PUBBLICO - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione 4.68 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
4.68 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11565/4001941
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 5
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 4
social impact