The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) within new continents and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites in northern Italy to calibrate a population model for Aedes albopictus and estimate the potential of imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue to generate the condition for their autochthonous transmission in the absence of control interventions. The model captured intra-year seasonality and heterogeneity across sites in mosquito abundance, based on local temperature patterns and the estimated site-specific mosquito habitat suitability.

Potential risk of dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Northern Italy based on a population model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae)

POLETTI, PIERO;
2016

Abstract

The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) within new continents and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites in northern Italy to calibrate a population model for Aedes albopictus and estimate the potential of imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue to generate the condition for their autochthonous transmission in the absence of control interventions. The model captured intra-year seasonality and heterogeneity across sites in mosquito abundance, based on local temperature patterns and the estimated site-specific mosquito habitat suitability.
2016
2016
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frédéric Alexandre; Metz, Markus; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Pugliese, Andrea; Rosà, Roberto; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11565/3994273
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