The expected value of the log of a Bayesian’s posterior assessment of the true state of nature, computed under the probability law of the true state, is always at least as large as the log of the prior.
Bayesian inference does not lead you astray. . .on average
FRANCETICH, ALEJANDRO;KREPS, DAVID
2014
Abstract
The expected value of the log of a Bayesian’s posterior assessment of the true state of nature, computed under the probability law of the true state, is always at least as large as the log of the prior.
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