This article develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office (Istat).
Stochastic Population Forecasts based on Conditional Expert Opinions
BILLARI, FRANCESCO CANDELORO;GRAZIANI, REBECCA;MELILLI, EUGENIO
2012
Abstract
This article develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office (Istat).
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.
I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
